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Gacha Change - uncertain of specifics - but something has changed..

Discussion in 'General' started by Sustainer, Dec 12, 2016.

  1. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

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    So looking at data over the weekend, a few threads on reddit and user collected data from a chat group I am in (At around 2000 or so pulls atm - expanding to make more..... informed statements) a few things.

    1. There is no longer a crap tier - Shadow/Bedile/Galuf/Sabin/etc... (Can confirm)
    2. There is no longer a rare tier - Zidane/Cecil/Gilbert/etc... (Can confirm)
    3. All 3* base units seem to have roughly the same chances of appearing when a blue crystal drops (Can confirm)

    Things I am working out and not certain of - just due to....... their limited nature
    1. I haven't the slightest idea on how current 4* units work - I am noting a slightly higher than before observed 4* base rate - but I am unsure if they are blended in the same pool - or how they are rolled exactly. My standard deviations are too large for 4* units to offer anything meaningful atm.
    2. Without knowing a thing about 4* base units - I certainly haven't the slightest clue on 5* base. Haven't even started to look at these... I personally have NOT observed a 3/4* base unit from Rainbow crystals - all have been 5* base, but again - data sample is too small with statistics being way too loose to infer anything.
    Will update later in the week as I and my chat group collect more data... I am good for about 150 unit pulls/hour and can get reliable data for 2000-3000 pulls/night if I can motivate people to help out.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2016
  2. Syrus375

    Syrus375 Active Member Supporter

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    I have noticed from personal pulls every 3-4 10+1 pull is a rainbow but every 1 out of 7 is actual 5* base this is from a crap ton of rerolls trying to get lightning this isn't like 1 account I did 3-4 rolls then got a lightning this is every 3-4 accounts on a 10+1 got a lightning did about 20 rerolls only 1 with lightning seems garnet/refia/amaranth/rydia are the star players for 5* trolls
     
  3. Diz

    Diz Member

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    Cool that you're crunching and collecting all this data....just curious as to why. Knowing this info obviously doesn't change the rates, and I'd be hard pressed to think it will change anyone's actual money spent.

    Are we trying to find patterns to keep the developers honest maybe?

    I don't mean any offense here Just seems like a lot of work from a large pool of people, curious what the endgame result you're hoping to achieve.
     
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  4. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

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    [​IMG]

    Breaking down your post..
    • Every 33-44 pull is a rainbow?
    • 1 in 7 of said rainbows are base 5*?
    • No clue
    • Garnet/Refia/Amarant/Rydia are the 5* rainbow trolls you pulled?
    Unsure what standard deviations would look like, but thx for the feedback sir.

    To be honest Diz - I love numbers, I love analysis and I love spotting trends.

    Basically I am a professional number cruncher - I get paid to analyze data, break it down, assess the validity of it and sign off on construction plans/deformation monitoring surveys/etc..

    I appreciate I'll still pull on whatever 5* base I want (with whatever amount I am willing to spend) regardless of the rates - luck rolls around eventually..

    As far as what do I get?

    A combination of figuring out a black box system, as well carving out a niche in the community for being somewhat knowledgeable in a particular area. Truly, these games occupy 20-30% of my "FFBE" type time, 70-80% of my time is spent participating in the community and figuring things out.

    It is a puzzle that I can use a shred of what I use my day to day math for, I can spot trends. I had contributed a lot to the Brave Frontier Community - 10k posts and 7k likes in 2 1/2 - 3 years was a fair amount of activity. That contribution means nothing here, nor do people know who I am. Call it an attempt to be known in the community and start to expand the overall knowledge base.

    I have no motivation to keep companies honest, nor am I interested in e-peen flexing. Simply expanding and keeping my interest in the game going, and hoping to find my own niche in this current and evolving community.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2016
  5. Miklos

    Miklos Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I pulled 10 pulls today
    9 ticket 1 daily

    3* Cecil
    3* Golbez
    3* Miyuki
    3* Kefka
    4* Hope - Daily
    3* Kain
    4* Charlotte
    3* Warrior of Light
    3* Vaan
    3* Medius

    Yea. Something is up. This was weird. I was like, why stop pulling?
     
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  6. Dryff

    Dryff Member

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    I pulled a 5* Amarant just yesterday on the daily. I was psyched to see the rainbow crystal thinking it might be Lightning...riiiiiiiiight.
     
  7. Syrus375

    Syrus375 Active Member Supporter

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    I did about 20 ish accounts
    out of the 20 accounts I pulled 1 had a lightning (5 star base)
    the rest of the accounts I got 2 amarants/2 rydia/ 1 refia/1 garnet (I was just saying there the stars cause I am sure you know the feeling of yayyyyy... oh :( )lol
     
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  8. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

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    Thx for the clarification sir :)
     
  9. Byrdman

    Byrdman Well-Known Member Supporter

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    On my main account I have seen 1 rainbow after about 200 pulls. Pulled 3* Rydia
    After rerolling 69 times I saw 4 rainbows, which was about 840 pulls. 3* Exdeath, 3* Terra, 4* snow, 5* Lightning.
     
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  10. Gaelic

    Gaelic Well-Known Member Supporter

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    There could be something in what your saying.

    Back when i first started playing i re-rolled my account ( due to NOT pulling Chizuru on her original banner with £100 spent...P'd me off something rotten back then!) & aimed for Chiz plus EXDEATH.

    It seemed every other post was Exdeath this, Exdeath that, back then :)
    So i decided to aim for him. Here comes the bit your interested in....

    I did over 1600 summons over an 18 hour period, pulled only 2 x 5* crystals, which happened to be in the same account (11 total pulls for a re-roll back then iirc). They were a Chizuru & a Garland. By this time tho i was HEAVILY committed to getting Exdeath, so i saved the account & continued.

    Long story short, only pulled Exdeath ONCE in all those pulls....every other unit in the game at that time appeared multiple times.

    In the hundreds ( in excess of 700 last time i roughly figured out, almost certainly over 1K by now tbh) of pulls since, ive landed only 1 copy of Exdeath right up until his recent banner ( where i got 20 trying for Gilg).

    My point being Exdeath was certainly NOT a common unit to pull. You were very lucky getting one pre/off banner.

    Now today, on my Daily.....Exdeath. Utterly useless tho he is to me now, it doesnt change the fact that it just wouldnt have happened normally, imo.

    Bit long-winded but that was the point i was trying to make. Again, you might be on to something.......

    EDIT: Thinking back to that time & comparing it to now, our 5* rates have had a significant increase imo. The amount of pulls i did for my re-roll totally killed any hope of EVER getting a 5* base unit. Nowadays they can & do drop regularly....

    (He says, completely ignoring the 200+ he had to do just for 1x Gilgamesh!! ::cry::)
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2016
  11. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

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    The distribution is what interests me - off banner rates always work out to 85% common (+-0.3%) and 15% rare (+-0.3%) - I've tracked and dealt with 10s of thousands of pull records.

    I'd be willing to place money on a bet that someone doing 100 pulls will have their off banner rates reflect the above - The subset of the 15% units before had ALL the rare units in its pool - Chizuru/WoL/Garnet/Cecil/etc..(No clue on 5* base tho.. not enough data) all had the same chances of appearing.

    However - since Friday of last week - the common unit rate is about 20% of the off banner subset.. which strangely is about the # of common units in the Gacha pulls. I haven't seen a "10x shadow lolololol" type pull thing - TBH the "shit" units were just as elusive as ZIdane/etc..

    They did change something - unsure exactly what and how it relates, but early hypothesis is that 3* crystal will produce any 3* base unit at roughly equal chances. No clue with gold/rainbow as I don't have enough data yet.. but that will change with time :)
     
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  12. Gaelic

    Gaelic Well-Known Member Supporter

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    We'll soon see. The very obvious proof will be players all of a sudden FINALLY getting their very first Zidane or Cecil ( 2nd most sought after 3* i believe)

    EDIT: Ooops, dont forget Ludmille too, who apparently is another "hard" 3* to pull off-banner
     
  13. Syrus375

    Syrus375 Active Member Supporter

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    Ill make u a deal u pay for 100 draws 9 10+1 and a daily and ill video tape it and send u the data :p
     
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  14. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

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    I suspect we will see more and more of those popping up.

    Even more exciting is that they probably will make the gacha changes as seen on JP. The negative nancies said this won't even happen (Equal chance for all 3* base units) - so I am certainly interested in the future.

    I'll just do it myself =P
     
  15. Byrdman

    Byrdman Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I believe your hypothesis is right, when I rerolled( which was past 4 days) I only got about 5 shadows on 840 pulls o_O, But I saw more Cecil and Zidane. I saw Fang drop on average 25% of the time. 2-4 out of 12-13pulls.

    Also on main I have pulled my first and 2nd Cecil..
     
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  16. Gaelic

    Gaelic Well-Known Member Supporter

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    WOW!! Now THIS is encouraging to hear. I think anyone who's played FFBE for any amount of time would be shocked to hear that Shadow only reared his head 5 times in over 800 pulls.........thats odds which NOBODY would've taken!!
     
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  17. Caliber

    Caliber Well-Known Member

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    I just pulled one ticket on your theory and pulled my first Firion, I've been playing since the beginning, thank you
     
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  18. Gaelic

    Gaelic Well-Known Member Supporter

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    This is kinda HUGE.......
     
  19. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

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    And no one seems to care lol.. Seriously..
     
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  20. Gaelic

    Gaelic Well-Known Member Supporter

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    The great thing is just doing the Dailys every day will "Yay" or "Nay" the whole thing too. (ill only be doing dailys now till next banner)

    I'll most definitely post here ALL my pulls for now dude. Im VERY interested in this for sure :)
     

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