1. Be part of the new campaign rinny launched and earn a new banner on the forum, The Supporter Campaign! - Check out the thread for more details Here.

  2. Interested or play the JP version of ffbe? Join the discussions in our JP section here!.

Gacha Change - uncertain of specifics - but something has changed..

Discussion in 'General' started by Sustainer, Dec 12, 2016.

  1. Sikkun

    Sikkun Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    535
    Likes Received:
    217
    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    Not much to go on because rainbows are so rare but for me after lightning release:

    Artemios: Base 3
    Demon Rain: Base 5
    Duane: Base 3 and just wrong
    WoL: Base 4
    Gilgamesh: Base 5
    Noctis x 2: Base 5

    So 66% base 5...also was 66% banner unit vs non. So getting the base 5* may have more to do with banner bonus. I wouldn't be surprised if it skews higher to base 5 like you say. Especially not sure how they handle when multiple base 5 are on banner.
     
  2. mcnoople

    mcnoople Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    247
    Likes Received:
    67
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2016
    Global ID:
    787,360,290
    Rank:
    99
    Since reading this thread I have gotten 4* alma X3, 4* edgar X2, and 3* shadow, cyan, luna, ludmille X3, maria, vanille, fang, chalotte,

    About the only units I have gotten that have any value to me are my first exdeath (3*) and another amarant.

    After having pulled about 100 times I still have only hit a 5* (WoL) one time and that was in the first 48 hours of the account. I rarely pull a 4* unit and when I do it is something bad like an Alma or edgar. I have a refia waiting on 6 mats so why would I even consider alma. I really need some top level units. I am at 4500 points at a week into this event and that is entirely from doing the 5 NRG level hundreds of times. I just don't have the offensive power needed to take down the higher levels before they death spam my units away.
     
  3. Sikkun

    Sikkun Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    535
    Likes Received:
    217
    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    1:100 rainbow, 1% is exactly what most people's math puts them around.

    There are at least 60 3* units. Assuming all units are equal the chances of getting a specific unit you want are 1:60 (1.6%).

    Making all 3* equal chance does not magically mean you will only get good 3* units.

    First you have to define good, but of ones most people would be happy with there are maybe 10-12 good, let's say 15 if you are happy with units just for TM.

    15:60 (25%) chance you might at least like the TM on a base 3*.

    What you need to do is focus on a 3* that is on banner. There's a reason no one is going to complain about being able to get charlotte right now. Just crap banners right now for getting DPS units.
     
  4. mcnoople

    mcnoople Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    247
    Likes Received:
    67
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2016
    Global ID:
    787,360,290
    Rank:
    99
    My current party is WoL lv 77, Bartz Lv 80, CoD lv 76, Agrias lv 80, Arc lv 80. I just need some units that can put up more damage faster. With a good companion character I have taken down the event Int level in 2 turns. But I have also had rounds where I lost 2 characters to death in the first turn and 2 more in the 2nd turn. I don't think I am doing too bad for a 1 month old F2P account, but I am greedy and just want more.

    I should be able to get some units to 6* with rewards from this OP and hopefully next OP I will do even better.
     
  5. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    1,471
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Global ID:
    105295406
    Leads:
    Orlandeau, Noctis
    Rank:
    103
    I think I should be a bit.. better/clearer in my definition of "Good" and "Crap" 3* base units.

    Since the game released there was an 15/85 split between "rare" tier units, or those that could go from 3-5*, and the "Crap" units, which went from 3-4* - naturally with time, some crap units went to 5*, and some "rare" units went to 6*.

    For a comprehensive list:

    Common:
    • Anzelm
    • Bedile
    • Clyne
    • Cyan
    • Duane
    • Edgar
    • Fran
    • Galuf
    • Kain
    • Krile
    • Lani
    • Luna
    • Maria
    • Penelo
    • Russell
    • Rydia
    • Sabin
    • Shadow
    • Shantotto
    • Vivi
    Rare:
    • Alma
    • Amarant
    • Arc
    • Artemios
    • Bartz
    • Cecil
    • Celes
    • Cerius
    • Charlotte
    • Cloud of Darkness
    • Edge
    • Exdeath
    • Fang
    • Faris
    • Firion
    • Freya
    • Garland
    • Gilbert
    • Golbez
    • Hayate
    • Ingus
    • Kefka
    • Kuja
    • Lenna
    • Leo
    • Locke
    • Ludmille
    • Medius
    • Miyuki
    • Mustadio
    • Rakshasa
    • Roselia
    • Sazh
    • Tellah
    • Terra
    • Vaan
    • Xiao
    • Zidane

    To expand on the above - when it was an 85/15 split, you would have the top units, all 20 of them appear 85% of the time, so you would have ~4.25% chance of pulling Vivi/etc... You would then have a 15% chance of one of the 39 "rare" units appearing, or 0.38%.

    The Gacha "flattening" has put all the above units at roughly equal chances of appearing, in a perfect world ~1.6% chance of them appearing off banner, or ~1.2% when the featured banner jumps in there..

    The definition of "shit" pulls with my above posts is that one had more than 10x the odds on pulling say a Vivi over Sazh - while both Vivi and Sazh are viewed as "shit" units, Sazh was in the rare table.

    Said rare table no longer exists, and you have an equal kick at the cat so to speak for every single 3* base unit.

    I have Rainbows at around 2-2.2% actually, with 5* base taking up 1.7%-2%ish.

    edit:
    To expand on that - to the people posting "Got Sazh/Amarant/Charlotte/etc.. I got shit!!" you actually did well compared to the previous system.
     
    Windsofwar likes this.
  6. DaMadDog420

    DaMadDog420 Well-Known Member Supporter

    Messages:
    330
    Likes Received:
    76
    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2016
    Global ID:
    822,951,702
    Leads:
    Noctis,White Knight Noel
    Rank:
    57
    This game needs a threshold while doing pulls that guarantees you at least one of the units you want for a certain amount of pulls/lapis. I used to play a ccg called Elemental Kingdoms with a similar gatcha approach(as do all ccgs i suppose). But there, if you spent $50(or the equivalent in gems if ftp and saved up), you were guaranteed the rare 5* card in question. Im sorry, but if i spend $50 on a digital purchase for a video game that will likely be obsolete in a few years, i should at least be guaranteed the unit i want lol. Mind you, this is coming from someone who was extremely lucky with the money ive spent on this game so far( $50 netted me Noctis,White Knight Noel, Refia x2, Chizuru, ExDeath, CoD, Kefka x2). But it could have easily gone differently with the way the current system is. Of course, i doubt gumi would ever consider doing this as long as theyre raking in the cash the way things stand lol.
     
  7. Sikkun

    Sikkun Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    535
    Likes Received:
    217
    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    Spending money has gotten me nothing noteworth.

    Free tickets has gotten me Gilgamesh, Noctis, all the base 3/4's you wokld want.

    I just TM farm and daily pull now, at least you know what your lapsis gets you then (TM).
     
    DaMadDog420 likes this.
  8. Maverickbp

    Maverickbp VIP VIP

    Messages:
    1,959
    Likes Received:
    553
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Thats true. Could grind out some specific tms for arena. Already gonna be farming my 10 Kefkas for ribbons. Don't have too much of an issue with arena, but always good to have flexible setups.
     
  9. DaMadDog420

    DaMadDog420 Well-Known Member Supporter

    Messages:
    330
    Likes Received:
    76
    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2016
    Global ID:
    822,951,702
    Leads:
    Noctis,White Knight Noel
    Rank:
    57
    Exactly my point. I was actually pretty lucky as ftp(just started spending in last couple weeks), i cant lie. But if you do spend money, there should be some guarantee with that expenditure. I mean, this is a video game, not a roulette table ;)
     
  10. Maverickbp

    Maverickbp VIP VIP

    Messages:
    1,959
    Likes Received:
    553
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Thats pretty much my thinking. I got lucky and got Elza on one 10+1 and gilgamesh on a daily. Pulled way too hard for Noctis (around 200) and nada. Won't be doing that again. I've said it before but units get replaced due to power creep but a lot of tms carry on from unit to unit. Doesn't do you that much good pulling a really good unit but not being able to outfit them properly. Now of course pulling said unit is better than not, but my lapis will continue to go farming the 800 extra tms I got during this banner.
     
    DaMadDog420 likes this.
  11. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    1,471
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Global ID:
    105295406
    Leads:
    Orlandeau, Noctis
    Rank:
    103
    I agree a safety net/booby prize would not hurt...

    But yanno, from a financial POV it must hurt revenue/max min.

    They stopped doing them on BF, indicating their revenue stream was higher when they didn't do them. I appreciate being "fair" to players, but they seem to still have a cashcow with BF, despite taking away things like safety nets and using a ramp up mechanic to get back to the old standard rates.

    I have no illusions every single player is a statistic and value in a large equation that results in optimal revenue while protecting future revenue. As long as they hit their quarterly projections, and are able to keep hitting them - they win.

    Elements like safety nets - while from ones point of view seems to be win/win, from a macro point of view it obviously hurts revenue/cuts into the whale portion of the game.
     
  12. Sikkun

    Sikkun Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    535
    Likes Received:
    217
    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    I agree, we won't see a change unless a massive amount of players stop spending.

    The gatcha on a digital game bothers me more than say Magic the Gathering because with physical items you have a secondary market that you can buy/sell on which sets actually values based on supply/demand.

    It does make me worry about the gaming industry as a whole. Why spend years and millions of dollars making a game like Witcher 3, each player will only spend 60-150 (collectors editions, DLC). As opposed to a much simplier mobile game that people easily spend 100'-10's of thousands on.

    Would have to actually look at some companies quarterlies, but given Blizzard/Activision buying King (Candy Crush) plus creating Hearthstone. Along with Nintendo and others starting to push heavy into P2W mobile games, I have a feeling it's a very good risk v reward currently.
     
  13. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    1,471
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Global ID:
    105295406
    Leads:
    Orlandeau, Noctis
    Rank:
    103
    Funny enough, I always bought singles.

    Here is the power of mobile - Square was in the red financially for.. years - with record losses. One quarter after they jump into mobile they start to post highest earning profits/in the back in company history.

    I can get on my own high horse about the fact I use disposable income/blah/blah/blah which I personally do - but these games are DANGEROUS for people with addiction problems imo. Whales are a rare beast in game, and even rarer they are rich. That said, I LOVE the platform for being able to play with a career/job/family/etc... I can easily get in a lot of hours/week on a mobile title versus 3-4 (if I'm lucky) on my PS4.
     
  14. Sikkun

    Sikkun Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    535
    Likes Received:
    217
    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    It's definitely a love hate. I see the danger in games the encourage spending 100's, forget about if you can afford it or not. Before cell phones 20-40 hours + was what was expected for $60. Now you can watch that go instantly and leave with nothing worthwhile.

    At least the casino gives you free drinks.
     
  15. Sustainer

    Sustainer The Engineer Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

    Messages:
    1,884
    Likes Received:
    1,471
    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Global ID:
    105295406
    Leads:
    Orlandeau, Noctis
    Rank:
    103
    I generally liken gacha games to the Casino - I have zero illusions I am walking away from either with anything - net sum over time with Casino is defo $0.

    I feel the EXACT same when I see a rainbow flashing as when I am on slots and have 4/5 symbols lined up as a jackpot.

    The free drinks are great however =P The people watching isn't bad either.
     
  16. Tetsuro

    Tetsuro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    316
    Likes Received:
    239
    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Global ID:
    947308065
    Leads:
    Elza
    Rank:
    105
    Pulled another Gold this morning, 3am EST... that's three gold dailies in a row.
     
  17. FaRFrOmPoOpIn

    FaRFrOmPoOpIn VIP VIP Supporter

    Messages:
    2,320
    Likes Received:
    886
    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Global ID:
    169,992,131
    all I see are drops in the chance to pull higher tear units due to Gumi wanting more money from the whales because they already know that if they drop a much wanted unit all they have to do is raise it .00000000001% higher than the norm and they will have fully validated their Rate up lie to scrounge more money for content like they have disgraced us this last week. I like this game but I see it failing fast.
     
  18. IbanezJev

    IbanezJev Member

    Messages:
    39
    Likes Received:
    11
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2016
    I never asked you to expand on your standard deviation, I asked for confidence limits (which I already know that you don't have!) so feel free to feed your self-importance by answering a question which you were not asked.

    I've studied statistics and I don't feel it necessary to feed my ego by coming here and demonstrating how this fantastic system can be used to explain such a trivial thing - its a waste of good calculus and a waste of quality FFBE time!

    Personally, I don't care what the drop rates are, but i'm pretty sure they changed over Christmas. What are going to do if you prove this? You going to take Gumi to court or something? i suggest you read the terms and conditions!

    You can't say what the odds are because you don't know whether there are other variables in the background:
    - what if there is a gameplay levelling mechanic which minimises the risk of, say, Lighning being released to every new player straight away?
    - how about the effect of player rank on the odds of each character dropping?
    - how about when more characters are released into the pot - can you factor that in easily?
    - does the time of day/week affect the summoning probabilities perhaps, and how would you know for sure?
    - what about the individual strengths of each character - are the odds set to balance the playing field?
    - does the amount of cash spent influence the odds in any way?
    - does the amount of playing time affect the odds in any way?

    I'm not sure how you can answer any of those questions, unless your like, the director of Gumi or something - don't you think their strategy is a closely guarded secret?

    and more importantly, how confident are you that your data is accurate to begin with?

    Where did you collect the data? If all 7000 have come from re-rolls then you have not mimicked the usual circumstances which are common to each players account. I never re-rolled once, Miyuki all the way!

    Think about these things. To me it doesn't matter what the odds are and to try to calculate them when you can't possibly understand all of the variables, is a futile, arrogant waste of time. I admire the stats, I admire your effort. But you haven't considered all of the possibilities and even if you had, none of it would matter anyway!!!!
     
  19. Sikkun

    Sikkun Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    535
    Likes Received:
    217
    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    What part of someone using math they enjoy offends you so much that it's an futile, arrogant waste of time? Did probability and statistics hurt you or something?

    $20 says they use the random number generator to do a dice roll and weight units however they want in their database. Weights will be the same for all players. Dice rolls x number you get y unit.

    Way more likely than them taking a million different factors that require you to track pointless data points. Then consider the position of the sun, how the planets are aligned, if a groundhog saw its shadow, and your personal asterlogical sign. That cost time and money, and is also pointless. You dont need some complex system to control rarity.

    All we can be 100% certain of is someone doing a couple pulls a day can not say with any certainty that rates have changed at any point in time.

    Though you can do 100's of pulls and see 3* base units have roughly equal probability outside of the banner units.

    If figuring out is so pointless, why even join the thread?
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  20. IbanezJev

    IbanezJev Member

    Messages:
    39
    Likes Received:
    11
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2016
    i keep getting dragged back in here every time i get a notification and someone has mentioned me. You lot do your maths, it doesn't bother me - like i said in my last post; i admire your efforts. If you put the same efforts into casino gambling, i'm sure you would be making a fortune right now!
     

Share This Page