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So which Rain banner is better to pull on?

Discussion in 'General' started by GinoHOMM, Nov 7, 2019.

  1. GinoHOMM

    GinoHOMM Ascended Member

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    The 9+1+1 for 5k or his step up?

    I get the step up guarantees rain at 25k, while the other doesn't, but it does guarantee a rainbow on every pull.

    My understanding was always that on-banner rainbows were 50% chance of each rainbow. So don't you have a 50/50 chance to pull Rain on each 5k step of 9+1+1? Or did something change because I see he's listed as "Rate up" but I've also seen stuff that says "Rate up" means 1.5% chance?

    So, does that mean each guaranteed rainbow only has a 1.5% chance of being Rain?! Or is it like 1.5/5 and thus a 30% chance of being Rain?
     
  2. Arashi

    Arashi Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a step up or rate expert, but the way I see it:

    If you can afford the step-up, the step-up is best since it 100% guarantees Rain.
    If you cannot afford the step-up, but can afford the 9+1+1, do the 9+1+1.
    And if you can't afford either, start tearing up tickets.
     
  3. Sorwen

    Sorwen VIP VIP

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    According to what Gumi said it is 1.5/5 as those are the rates on a refined pool and note it says that is what you are pulling on. If you still are not sure then click the drop rate button and check. It will be listed there for any current banner.
     
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  4. xV3N0M

    xV3N0M Ascended Member

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    I did 1 pull on the 9+1+1 and got one rain and one livid shantotto so I was happy will probably UoC his prism now
     
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  5. GinoHOMM

    GinoHOMM Ascended Member

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    So I looked through the drop rates, which are always incredibly hard to read because you can't just select the particular banner you want to get rates for... you have to scroll through all of the banners and all of the summons on each banner individually (which all have similar names) and try to find the specific correct one.

    But basically what I found is that the rate for Rain is literally 1.5%/100% on the guaranteed rainbow. Every other unit on the 9+1+1 rainbow has something like a 1.12% chance. Basically, the "rate up" is a giant scam. The chance of getting rain on any of those guaranteed rainbows is almost insignificantly different from getting any other unit. However, it appears that you have a 1.5% chance on every summon, not just the guaranteed rainbow.

    So, your "expected" Rain rate for the 9+1+1 is 12*1.5%= 18%. Which means that there is one Rain that drops roughly per 5-6 of those pulls.

    Looks like the "expected" Rain rate is around 20.5% for step 1 of the Step up, but it varies slightly for each step with Step 5 being 100%.

    Kinda answered my own question with those numbers, but estimating per 25k, this is the "expected" Rain rate for each:
    9+1+1: 18% x 5 = 0.9 Rains
    Step up: ~20.5% x 4 + 100% x 1 = 1.82 Rains

    NOTE: These number are rough estimates, NOT exact.

    However, the sheer number of rainbows on the 9+1+1 will be higher so for people like me who still need MANY other rainbows as well as Rain... it's still a tough choice.
     
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  6. Katt

    Katt Ascended Member Supporter

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    I did two rounds of the 9+1+1 and I got two rainbows (1 from each), neither of them Rain. I agree with the comments above, however. Step Up at least gives you that guarantee at the end of the lap! You might find that more favorable.
     
  7. RaagisEd

    RaagisEd "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    This is indeed insane, the "rate-up" on the guaranteed rainbow is a joke. Also agree on the rates overview is a pain. But for full details on that banner:

    9 normal summons: 1.5% Rain, 0.04166% other rainbow
    +1 gold: 1.50004% Rain, 0.06547% other rainbow
    +1 rainbow: 1.50093% Rain, 1.17260% other rainbow

    (Probably 85 rainbows in the limited pool including new Rain)

    But i come to a total chance on a RainRainbow is (9x1.5) 13.5% + 1.50004% + 1.50093% = 16.50097%
    As a side blunder, the total chance on my pg Lasswell #13 is: (9x0.04166%) 0,37494% + 0.06547% + 1.17260% = 1,61301

    So in a way you'll get a 10x more chance on new Rain than on pg Lasswell (might even get both:eek:)
     
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  8. GinoHOMM

    GinoHOMM Ascended Member

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    You're right, it's 16.5% not 18%. I have no idea why I did 12 * 1.5% when there are only 11 summons... d'oh!
     
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  9. lelowww

    lelowww Ascended Member

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    Since I didn't have 25k lapis to do the entire Step Up I pulled 4 times in the 9+1+1 banner trying to obtain a second King Rain and failed miserably (pulled one with tickets and since I have only 4 UOCs I'm still far from buying his prism).
    20K lapis for 1 Yuffie, 1 Raegen, 1 Sol, 1 Seaside Nichol, and these units from the screenshot didn't feel like a good deal for me.
     
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  10. GinoHOMM

    GinoHOMM Ascended Member

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    Wait, you got 5 rainbows on one pull?! I've never seen anything like that.

    I ended up doing the 25k step up. For 25k, I ended up getting a grand total of 5 rainbows (that's including 2 that were guaranteed). Of course the last one was a guaranteed Rain, but I only ended up getting that one and that was it. But hey... I got my 7th Lightning... gotta love this "limited" pool of rainbows!!
     
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  11. RaagisEd

    RaagisEd "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    Even after calculating my own bad chances on this one, i gave it a try... 2xRainbowAnimated Myra #3 and Esther #7. (Bunch of tickets gave 2 more, Wild Rose Firion #1 and Kimono Fina #1. Not liking the new on-banner rates so far)
     
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  12. Armando

    Armando Active Member

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    With the new uoc mechanic id say, always go for the step up, if you dont have enough lapis, skip the banner and save for a banner where you can do at least 1 full step up and prism the second copy.
     
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  13. PrezObama

    PrezObama "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    You either didn't actually get a Lightning or you should enter a support ticket because Lightning is not in the pool according to the Drop Rates page.
     
  14. Benjuu

    Benjuu Ascended Member

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    Step, I did full lap and I got 3 Rains 1 Fid 1 Jake and 1 Beowulf
    I did the 9+1+1 and I got only trash rainbows
     
  15. RaagisEd

    RaagisEd "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    It's in the news, ppl with lightnings get another summon ::nerd::
     
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  16. magnum0pus_

    magnum0pus_ Ascended Member

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    well if you guys need more data, I got 2 AKR from doing full step up, threw about 15 tix and got 2 more AKR.. so it's lit. lmao
     
  17. SadPanda

    SadPanda Ascended Member

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    I honestly think the 9+1+1 is a trap. You may get lucky and pull the chair in the first pull, but statistically speaking the step-up is better and you're guaranteed at least one copy. The only way I would pull on the 9+1+1 is if you already did the step-up, used all your tickets, and want another copy and don't mind spending lapis for it.
     
  18. JimmyL

    JimmyL Sleepless VIP Supporter

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    We are kind of always presented these tough choices whenever we get banners with popular units.

    Starting from hyoh step up we had a 25k hyoh/A.Rain step up or 11k hyoh step up for example

    The way to look at them always the same, the more expensive one is low risk, guaranteed low reward (1 featured unit at the last step). Cheaper one is low cost, high risk, potentially without feature unit. Which one to choose really depends on how much risk you want to take.

    For me, in these banners I always go for high risk one. Gambling with less resources is more fun than paying more for guaranteed stuff. But to each their own.

    Comparing to the hyoh 11k step up, this new 9+1+1 banner at least guarantee a rainbow on each pull, it's actually quite nice with the new curated rainbow list.
     
  19. Ranzo

    Ranzo "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    Got 1 AKR from a normal ticket.

    I was thinking to get a second copy of him, but now that I think spending 8 UoC to get his prism is not worth for me.

    I took a RISK of exhange UoC for Lapis, and I summon in the step up. Until step 3, guess what..

    I got #2 AKR alongside with #2Yuffie, #2 Ignacio, #1 Red XXX (or whatever it is). 5 UoC spent + 5000 Lapis.

    I was thinking to do the 9+1+1 banner, but it seems to get way more off-banner rainbow even it is guarenteed.
     
  20. Andys

    Andys Ascended Member

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    mhm, is just multiplying rate to number of units the correct way to calculate overall chance? I believe it should be calculated from the opposite - <chance to get 1 rain> = 1 - <chance to not get rain on normal 9 summons> ^ 9 * <chance to not get rain on 4*> * <chance to not get rain on 5*>.
    So that's umm 0.985 ^ 9 * 0.985 * 0.985 = 0.985 ^ 11 ~= 0.847, that's the chance to NOT get any rains when you summon 9+1+1.
    The chance to actually get Rain therefore is around 16% only. The biggest trap is that his rate up for guaranteed 5* unit is negligible, his drop chance is same static 1.5% while all other 5* units are 1.17%. Actual chance is still better since ideally I need to add calculations for a chance of two, three rains etc, but I doubt it will improve that 16% chance much since it's very very low probability.
    $#@!, if I'd calculated it before I'd never spent anything except tickets on this banner, 5k for 1 in 6 chance also without guaranteed unit after 25k is too much.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2019

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