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Theory - 5* drop rates are pre determined

Discussion in 'Rants, Raves and Accomplishments' started by Shadowschild, Sep 10, 2019.

  1. Shadowschild

    Shadowschild Ascended Member

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    Here is some food for thought.

    A few minutes ago i used 2 blue tickets on the bartz banner, first came down rainbow (mediena). Second came down gold & shifted to rainbow (mediena).

    The odds of getting back to back rainbows is already very slim, almost non existant but to land the same off banner unit twice?

    Looking back at some of the pull results over the years, i recall seeing many people land the same rainbows that I did off banner. Youtubers, forum posts, even friends that i see pull all getting the same off banner unit.

    Then you get the ones that pull on 5 step ups back to back and only ever land the guaranteed unit. This suggests that the odds of getting a rainbow seem predetermined at specific times throughout the day, and the pools are also selectively chosen and possibly shift as to not appear obvious. Im wondering if people could start adding the time they got a rainbow to see if a pattern begins to emerge.

    It just seems so inconceivable to get what I just managed without some ingame mechanic favoring it's outcome.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
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  2. joshvengard

    joshvengard "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    3 things, first of all, there's no code proof that shows this, which means it has to be taken with a grain of salt, and as a theory, (which is indeed what you said) second, youtubers and people on the forum don't upload instantly after summoning, (youtuber's videos take hours to upload depending on speed of their internet and length of the vid), and third, the chance of getting two medienas back to back is effectively the same chance of getting any other possible combination of offbanners.
     
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  3. Seven

    Seven Mildly Active Member VIP Supporter

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    Also not to mention there really isn't anything truly random, which means with enough information you can even predict future summons. Considering that some pattern must eventually develop but how much of that is just human faith is up to question.
     
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  4. RaagisEd

    RaagisEd "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    I have also heard the theories about summoning units on the toilets to give better rates. Or when you are on holiday, also seems to give more rainbows when on holiday. (Actual true story, that i heard about this)
     
  5. daima

    daima Ascended Member

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    Or it's just human brains dont understand well statistic and variance.

    Tell someone the results of an experiment. Ask him to fake a list of numbers to determine the results of this experiment now. Use some basic statistic tests on that list and see the results. You gonna see the person gonna be ultra wise with his variance. Nature is a lot more chaotic and unpredictable than we think it is. Just think about evolution.

    And as our brain fart like crazy on that kind of stuff, our brains like to see non existent patterns to help him and make everything somewhat logical. And other men invented gambling to make money.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
  6. iBuko

    iBuko Well-Known Member Supporter

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    This are just coincidences. Variance and luck. ::thonk::
     
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  7. Wdiggums

    Wdiggums VIP VIP

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    Could be from different isps at different times for the holiday thing, just switching WiFi’s or back and forth to your cellular data ( assuming playing on cell data device ) should accomplish this as well, or maybe rates are turned up for different zones :-s or maybe is just dumb luck xD
     
  8. Wdiggums

    Wdiggums VIP VIP

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    You don’t think someone can crap out a rainbow? :-( that’s sad lmao
     
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  9. Ashlag

    Ashlag Here and not here. Borderlands 3 takes precedance. Staff Member Moderator VIP Supporter

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    You have the same chances to get Mediena, then Mediena or Noctis, then DKC. Any two combo of specific 5* would have the same probability.
     
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  10. iBuko

    iBuko Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Could be, it happened to me: toilet and 4th Sylvie. LOL

    All other pulls in the toilet, crap. ::vplaugh::
     
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  11. Skye

    Skye Ascended Member

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    I don't know if there's anything "not truly random" about the pull rates (I guess it's a computer that picks the units, using some algorithm, whether that is sufficiently random is anybody's guess).

    But what I do know from psychology is that we are biased to share (and remember) exceptional things, as in things that look or feel incredible/unlikely/extreme, like back-to-back pulling the same unit, which is a rare event.

    Now, I've never had this happen to me, but I did pull for example four (4) Balthiers within two weeks, I think I got 7-8 rainbows during that time, and half of them were Balthiers. It was at the start of 3rd anniversary when we had a bunch of 5* EX pulls. The reason this came to my mind now is because it felt unusual, and I remember it as such. But it's probably well within what's concievable for a completely random pull.
     
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  12. Manveru

    Manveru "Hall of Fame" Member

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  13. Regalia

    Regalia Professional Cat VIP Supporter

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    true randomness does have stretches with order and patterns. You might recall hearing about the thought experiment where an infinite number of monkeys with an infinite number of typewriters would eventually type out the collected works of Shakespeare?

    Also, computers can't actually generate truly random numbers. Just close enough to random to prevent the prediction of the outcome of any single event...

    Unless you have the seed and the algorithm, in which case you can predict with 100% accuracy, though the exact method varies by game.

    For example, FF12 used a single master list of seeds that it called on for everything, feeding them into individual computations for damage, etc. If you paid attention to your critical hits, you could figure out where on the master list you were, and use it to cheese rare treasure spawn/drops.
     
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  14. Wdiggums

    Wdiggums VIP VIP

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    Only time I got back to back same unit rainbows was even weirder was 2 3* tickets not sure if ex ticks or reg but was on banner... 1st tick was gold to rainbow=tifa
    2nd tick was blue-gold-rainbow=tifa was totally shocking ( now wether anyone would want tifa is another question xD )
     
  15. Kaladin

    Kaladin "Hall of Fame" Member

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    I think it is a similar kind of "random number generator" system that is used in slot machines. They are "random" but somehow pay out a certain percentage consistently. I used to repair them and I have seen the payout reports. They fluctuate daily, but over their lifetime, they pay exactly what they are supposed to.
    I bet the gacha pulls work in a similar fashion. Sometimes there will be many rainbows but other times there will be none but it all averages out (probably)
    I'm just guessing and i'm not a programmer so this is all conjecture but it makes sense to me.
    Also, on the 40mil step-up, I got a double rainbow yesterday: Shadowlord (don't care) and Cid #6 (too many)
     
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  16. Vatenkeist

    Vatenkeist VIP VIP Supporter

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    To think luck matters in a computerized gambling environment programmed and set up by gumi .....
     
  17. Clodia

    Clodia Ultimate Cat Lady VIP Supporter

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    With a 3% rainbow rate with an 1% on-banner rate, they don't need to screw with the rates, the same way casinos don't need to screw with their rates to generate a big income. In the end, we can't now for sure, but there really is not reason for them to go out of their way to make some elaborate plans to screw the playerbase over, when just a low pull rate also works like a charm.

    We can't know, but "because they are gumi" is not a convincing argument at all.
    For the rest, I agree with what has already been said by many smart people here about how randomness is chaotic instead of tidy, and that we are biased to remember/notice the extraordinary results way more than the more normal seeming results.
    Aaaand that our brains are jerks and love patterns. That too.
     
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  18. victor sant

    victor sant "Hall of Fame" Member Supporter

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    "The future is predetermined"
    - The Order of the One True Way
     
  19. Kaladin

    Kaladin "Hall of Fame" Member

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    That's a thing called "pareidolia" ::up::
     
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  20. Vatenkeist

    Vatenkeist VIP VIP Supporter

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    the house always wins, everywhere where gambling is involved. hush. aside from operating costs mobile gambling is very lucrative, especially since payout is an effective 0. f2p is just there to lure ppl in,and most don´t stay for long. Some do and others dont stay f2p.(Thats the idea, anyway, The reason this game is existing and continues to exist.) That s fine f2p is not the targeted audience , just a potential audience. If u walk into a casino your fully aware what you are there to do. In FFBE , u walk in for a different reason - but - end up doing the same.
     

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